Peter Sagan has a limited and hard path to the Paris Olympics.

It may be puzzling to the youths in cycling fandom who don’t remember triple-World Champion-era Peter Sagan, but for those of us who do recall those heady years of Grease videos, all-time victory celebrations, and of course a boatload of green jerseys, his quiet departure from road racing this year definitely held mixed feelings. Happy for the memories, but a bit sad at the muted goodbye, and a touch concerned that Sagan looked, well, miserable in his last couple of years in the peloton.

What might turn that around? Well, mountain bike racing, maybe. “I started with mountain biking, I want to finish with mountain biking, and I finally want to enjoy something in cycling,” Sagan told GCN at the Singapore Criterium recently. While he added that he wanted “not just to be focused on big priorities,” he’s got one in mind: representing Slovakia in the mountain bike XC at the Paris Olympics.

He’s done it once, at Rio in 2016. But to get back is going to be a massive challenge. “It’s going to be very difficult and a very hard way until Paris,” Sagan acknowledged. “But I always say it is not impossible and I have to think positive.”

There are just 34 start spots for the Olympic XCO men’s field. Start spots are awarded by nation, not rider. The top eight countries in the UCI rankings qualify two athletes each; countries ranked 9-19 get one start spot each. A max of three more spots can go to nations that win their region’s Continental Championships, but there’s a catch: that doesn’t apply to the European CC event, only Africa, America, and Asia. (Four final spots go to the highest-ranking countries in the elite and U23 categories at the 2023 Worlds that didn’t otherwise qualify.)

Neither the Euro CC wildcard nor 2023 Worlds options are available to Sagan. Which leaves him with the task of somehow getting Slovakia into the top 19 nations in the UCI rankings. Two more wrinkles there: the rankings are a two-year cycle that began in May 2022, leaving Sagan and Slovakia with a LOT of catching up to do. And, the cutoff is May 26, 2024 (the date of the Novē Mêsto World Cup). Which means he has six months to do two years of work.