Fans of the Atlanta Braves have been pressing for the team to acquire a “frontline starter” this offseason, an acquisition that is easier said than done.
Not many of those supposed aces have been available this winter, with Aaron Nola re-signing with the Philadelphia Phillies (despite being reportedly offered more money by Atlanta) and both Shohei Ohtani (who won’t pitch in 2024) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (who’s never pitched in MLB) signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
And some of the reason that fans have been asking for another frontline starter has been because one of their current aces, lefty Max Fried, is “injury prone” and can’t be counted on to be available for the postseason.
But is that really true? Is Max Fried really injury prone? Let’s dive into it.
Yes, Max Fried’s 2023 was full of injuries. After leaving his Opening Day start against Washington with a mild hamstring strain, one that kept him out for the minimum fifteen days, Fried hit the injured list twice more in the 2023 season.
A forearm strain, initially suffered in May, resulted in more than two months out of action, with Fried returning in early August. The end of his season was then cut short thanks to a recurring blister issue on his pitching hand, one that necessitated an injured list stint and undoubtedly cut into his postseason preparation.
But outside of that, Fried’s been remarkably available.
Using Baseball Reference’s Stathead span finder, since Fried became a full-time starter for the 2019 season and tracking all the way through the 2022 season, he was 19th in total innings pitched with 572.2. And they’re not just empty innings -they’re good innings. Fried’s 3.06 ERA over that span is 10th best in the sample, with only two pitchers having both a better ERA and higher innings total than Fried from 2019 to 2022.
1: Gerrit Cole, NYY – 3.03 ERA in 667.1 innings pitched
2: Shane Bieber, CLE – 2.91 ERA in 588.1 innings pitched
Of players in the sample with at least 500 innings, Fried’s winning percentage of .722 is 4th on the list, while his ERA+ of 142 is 7th.
When adding in 2023, Fried goes from 19th to 30th in total innings, but he’s still one of the 30th heaviest-used starters in the sample even after his injury-marred 2023 season.
(Another “frontline starter” that has been moved this offseason, with the Tampa Bay Rays trading Tyler Glasnow to the Los Angeles Dodgers, has been arguably the most injury prone starter in MLB during that same span, pitching only 212.2 innings from 2019-2022, although he did add a career-high 120 innings last season.)
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